Afghanistan’s Ethnic Divide: The Taliban’s Struggle for Legitimacy and Stability

Abstract

Afghanistan's rich ethnic diversity has historically been a double-edged sword, contributing to both cultural richness and internal discord. This study explores the persistent ethnic tensions within Afghanistan, focusing on the historical and contemporary dynamics between the Pashtuns—the largest ethnic group—and non-Pashtun communities. The Taliban, predominantly rooted in the Pashtun population, has historically sought to consolidate political dominance, often at the expense of non-Pashtun representation. The 2021 fall of Kabul to the Taliban intensified these tensions, creating a political and social vacuum that ethnic-based insurgent groups have sought to exploit, potentially deepening ethnic discord and threatening national stability. Grounded in Edward Azar’s Protracted Social Conflict Theory, this research examines the nexus between ethnic conflict and the multifaceted challenges faced by the Taliban government. Azar’s framework provides critical insights into the root causes, dynamics, and consequences of ethnic conflict, highlighting its profound implications for governance, social cohesion, and the Taliban's ability to address the complexities of a divided nation. This study not only advances the understanding of Afghanistan’s ethnic dynamics but also underscores the broader implications for conflict management and state-building in deeply divided societies.